I live in Gwynedd and have worked in financial services since graduating from Cardiff
University in 2010. My job involves travelling around Cymru to discuss people’s finances,
including their aims and deepest concerns.
What my job and life experience has told me is that, even if we don’t like to admit it, much of
what we do is dictated by our finances and financial fears. Whether it’s concerns about being
unable to put food on the table, getting on the housing ladder, or ensuring your children and
grandchildren are looked after, people act and vote on what they believe is in their own, their
families, and the overall country’s best interests. As we saw from Scotland’s Indy
referendum campaign, finance and economics matter greatly. As an advisor to Bill Clinton
said, “it’s the economy, stupid”.
Cymru has suffered greatly from poor economic management for centuries and there’s no
sign of any change from Westminster. We urgently need to replace their apathy and
disrespect with an economic model that works for Cymru and its people. The main challenge
for YesCymru is to convince voters that the existing economic and political model is broken
and that Annibyniaeth is a big part of the answer.
Despite people’s well-meaning concerns, the Commission on the Constitutional Future of
Wales stated that Annibyniaeth is viable, but they also said there would be risks and short-
term difficulties. To get the support of the majority, we need to use the momentum created
by the excellent work of YesCymru’s Directors and countless volunteers to push beyond the
40% barrier by continuing to address people’s financial fears head-on with honesty and
respect.
The movement is in an excellent position with most young adults supporting our cause and,
after a difficult year, we are also on a stable financial footing. This means we can move
forward positively by supporting more local group activities around Wales and invest to
target specific Indy-curious groups.
I will work hard and use my financial expertise to ensure that YesCymru’s finances are
efficiently managed and to communicate effectively with the Indy-curious

During his Spring 2023 visit to Ireland, President Biden said that the world faced an historical inflection point, of the kind which happens every century or so.

Biden’s assertion is based on the way that the great powers or giant economic trends can suddenly move very quickly from time to time, leaving winners and losers. And that energy is the driver behind these huge geopolitical shifts.

To Biden, the mega-growth of the clean energy sector could be the salt of the earth; and salt on the wounds of his MAGA opponents.

Two centuries ago, the industrial revolution was gathering a full head of steam under coal’s power. It sparked the West’s pre-eminence but at the often brutal expense of countries across the world and by leaving deep scars across Wales.

At the beginning of the 20th century, oil flowed and set in motion another great game amongst the powers. Economically, the narrative involved the transfer of natural wealth from one part of the world to another, creating fortune after fortune along the way, the pipeline or via huge ships with their fluid loads.

Countries were both forged from anew and strengthened from old from oil and then gas’ riches, as the demand for this most fundamental of raw resources grew and grew throughout the 20th century. Think of the Middle East and the USA itself; and oil was pegged to the dollar, so sealing America’s hegemony. But think also of Denmark and, especially, Norway which has, in a matter of a few decades, increased its Sovereign Wealth Fund to a value which by now exceeds £1.1 trillion - that’s £1,100,000,000,000. This oil and gas accumulated wealth is approximately 50 times the entire Welsh Government budget and is one of the main reasons why a lot of Norwegians drive Teslas.

And despite the proclamations from Rio, Paris, Glasgow and now Dubai, demand is still increasing to this day. In fact, since the end of the Covid pandemic, the global economy has been feasting on oil, gas and coal as if it was the last days of the Roman Empire. That includes the expansion of oil and gas drilling in the Arctic as more favourable conditions prevail from global warming. Yes, it’s bonkers from a climate aspect but it is markets and people’s quality of life today that prevails in the economic world. And the people of Pompeii ignored Vesuvius’ rumblings until it was too late.

But although it so very difficult to turn around the supertanker which is the global fossil fuel economy, it is possible; as the technology is now available to keep coal, oil and gas in the ground and carbon out of harm’s way. But this energy transition will not take place overnight. 

The main resources which will displace coal, oil and gas at the required scales are the sun, wind and water. Wales has more than plenty of two out of these three, especially when you factor-in our superb offshore wind resource. Renewable energy and green hydrogen (produced by splitting water with electricity) is seen as the end-game of the latest great energy game. Together they provide firm renewables: clean energy whatever the weather or time of year.

We should appreciate this as we shape decarbonisation policies in Wales. In a small country, are all efforts meaningful in a big world? Or is it best to concentrate our resources - human, physical and financial - on decarbonisation solutions which can be swift, deep, practical and, above all, replicable across the world? And without harming ourselves economically in the process.

The 21st century’s energy game demands co-operation instead of rampant competition since everyone is facing the same enemy, a warming world. And you don’t argue with physics, as there will only be one winner.

America and many other important energy players of our times - including Norway and Denmark, countries comparable to Wales - accept the need for a big, historical energy shift in order to have any control over climate change. Politics and economics are tools which can help deliver the required large-scale introduction of clean energy technologies. All stand to benefit, but the countries which are moving quickly (and some are, very quickly, including China and India) will be those whose economies stand to benefit most.

After over 20 years of trying, it’s safe to say that the constitutional arrangement hasn’t provided Wales with the required tools to both respond to the challenges and to also seize the clear and significant opportunity of deriving financial gain from our energy wealth.

The “all the tools in the box” approach which is required in Wales to form a comprehensive energy and economic strategy for the benefit of Wales (which also, by dint of pace and example, will benefit others) involves these measures:

• Full devolution of energy powers without any upper limit 

As things stand, the Welsh Government only has the powers to determine energy projects up to a limit of 350MW of installed capacity. A big power station will exceed that limit.

• Devolve The Crown Estate

Not only to derive significant income directly to the Welsh Government’s coffers from the leasing of energy projects in Wales’ waters. But to also set the rules of the development game in order to maximise the benefits to Wales. And to facilitate and release developments which are currently stymied due to constraints of electricity grid connection, planning and other factors. Re-name it too.

• Devolve Ofgem

In order to regulate the design of whole-systems energy grids and markets which serve Wales, while aligning with emerging UK, European and global standards.

• Establish a Welsh energy systems operator 

Currently, National Grid’s Energy Systems Operator keeps GB’s lights on by managing and balancing the electricity grid. But a Future Systems Operator is being established with a wider remit to reflect the new energy world - and that includes a whole systems approach to the electricity and gas grids plus the huge demands of zero emission transportation. What better time, therefore, to establish a dedicated systems operator which works to Wales’ unique energy advantages, while both supporting and steering our neighbours’ grids to the east and the west.   

• Ambitious state energy and community energy development companies

Long overdue but Wales is now establishing its own energy development company (it’s what nearly all European countries have been doing for years) but its remit should not be limited to on-land developments. The big prize is out at sea. In addition, strategic support should be provided to grow the excellence in community energy developments throughout Wales by increasing their capacity and providing priority to local energy projects, so maximising local wealth benefits. In common with global best-practice in the energy industry, these developments can be undertaken in partnership with companies from anywhere, who can provide the right experience, finance and technological know-how and in the form of joint ventures.

Planning is already devolved to Wales but reform is needed of the planning system and also of land ownership to place the well-being of Wales’ communities front and central to decision-making and to also speed-up and simplify the development process. This must benefit Wales primarily while also facilitating the development prospects of supportive external companies, so helping to make Wales a magnet for investment.

In summary: control the resources, the powers, the rules and the system - in order to maximise energy development opportunities in Wales for the benefit of Wales.

For reference, we could do worse than to copy Denmark’s Energy Model. Established in response to the last big energy crisis of the 1970s, the Danish Energy Model integrates regulation, infrastructure and development for the national good. To the Danish roster of success, you can add the giant energy and trade companies which Denmark has nurtured, such as Vestas, Ørsted and Maersk. Not bad for a country of 5.8 million citizens.

But, instead of requesting these vital powers and measures one by one - and the Senedd will likely be underwater by the time the process is completed - wouldn’t it be easier to just have them all, automatically, through independence? After all, we are in a climate, energy and economic emergency and we need to release our energy - literally and cleanly - in order to reduce carbon and to create the wealth which we desperately need.

The people of Wales should be in the position to quickly make the necessary decisions which sets Wales on the right, strategic energy trajectory. For our benefit but also for England’s benefit and countries on continental Europe too, who are a market for our energy exports. While also serving as a route to market for Ireland’s vast energy resources by creating a strong Celtic energy partnership. Plus acting as a hub for the global import of clean energy via our superb ports. Small countries can move swiftly in response to challenges which, by now, are frustratingly apparent. And the opportunity is very real now - and not to wait ten or twenty years - because the demand for clean energy is so large and alive now. 

But where will the money which is needed for this large-scale investment come from? The financial world is awash with capital which is looking for a good home. Can Wales be one of those homes? And this is not a case of merely opening our doors for others to benefit from our natural resources, while we settle for a tip. It is disappointing that the Welsh Government continues to support such accommodation on energy after 25 years of devolution. Policies have been implemented which leave crumbs on the table for Wales’ communities. 

We should invest our own money in the form of pension funds or by using our considerable assets as collateral in raising finance. We need to be thinking of sums in the billions and, yes, we should do this in partnership with others who also have the finance, the technology and the know-how. This is Wales being very much open for swift business on energy. For our benefit and for our partners. But on our terms. This is completely normal practice for other countries and for many of the world’s largest companies. And things can happen very quickly, where there’s a will.

Consider Silicon Valley, which has grown Apple, Microsoft, Intel, Amazon and more. Massive private companies with risky venture capital behind them. Well, to an extent but it was US pension funds which underwrote the financing of these transformational companies and with the strategic oversight of the US Government. Spurring incredible creativity of the kind which is now being emulated in the clean energy tech sector. The biggest risk is not to be investing at scale and quickly into clean tech. We, therefore, have a choice: to be active players in the new, clean energy game; or to remain as largely passive consumers. 

Now assess Port Talbot and Llanelli’s steelworks future and the industrial and manufacturing strengths which remain across south Wales and extend to north east Wales. Businesses which employ thousands and which, like all, are suffering due to the high costs of energy but which are facing the need to decarbonise to remain in business. Markets are demanding clean products. The virtuous circle is to invest in the development of clean energy to power these industries which can then sell their clean products to eager buyers. The vicious circle is one of continued managed decline.

A few years ago, I estimated that every person in Wales spends, on average, around £1,000 a year on energy (electricity, heat and transport fuel). Or over £3 billion per year for our population of 3.2 million. By now, with no sign of the energy crisis abating, you could probably double that sum. Most of that money flows out of Wales. So, our internal market for energy is large in itself. A market which presents energy self-supply opportunities to keep wealth within Wales; let lone the wealth creation which can accrue from exporting to our energy-hungry neighbours.

And Wales has a strong financial technology sector which can support the development of the required investments and financial exchanges. A century ago, the world’s first £1m cheque is reported to have been written at Cardiff’s historic Coal Exchange. Why can’t we re-kindle that dynamic relationship between money and energy in Wales; for positive, sustainable change? Which doesn’t just repair communities but which enables them to flourish. While keeping a little over to repair the Coal Exchange itself, parts of which are in such a sorry state. 

Across Europe, governments have long-established energy development companies, with pension funds behind them, to create wealth which in turn funds their public services. And that includes profiting from energy projects in Wales. Good luck to them! But it begs the obvious question, when our public services are on their knees, as to why do we accommodate such developments while settling for so little in return? Mature countries take the responsibility to fund and maintain their own high standards of public services. Some of those countries use our energy towards such ends. And some of those energy resources are found in parts of Wales which are amongst the most deprived in the whole of Europe. With us being so rich in our resources, why are our expectations so low?

Our solutions are largely internal to us, surely? Wales’ natural resources are an incredible asset. Assets which should be the foundation for business and enterprise; and which in turn fund excellent public services. We need the means to affect change; or else we’ll just continue our slide to being a means-tested nation.

We are in a deep cost-of-living crisis. The current orthodoxy presents no vision for the improvement of economic conditions in Wales. Some look east to London for salvation, yet again, but a quick glance to the west reveals that Ireland’s corporate tax receipts alone will, this year, match the Welsh Government’s entire budget. Ireland’s economic model is a matter of debate but there are other economic models to also assess amongst Europe’s small, high-achieving nations. They are all sovereign states who can determine what’s best for them. Worth thinking about if you’re a Welsh citizen waiting and waiting for treatment or a bus.

Can the people of Wales be persuaded to take their economic well-being into their own hands? At the moment, this is overwhelmingly dictated by factors over which Wales has no control. And the most important factor in controlling the cost of everything - whether it’s buying food, clothes or goods; and running schools, hospitals, businesses or a farm - is the cost of energy. It’s the bottom-line. The rise in energy costs being the main driver behind the rise in inflation.

To control energy is to control inflation and so the economy. That is the reason why President Biden has named his signature policy of providing a massive boost to clean energy as the Inflation Reduction Act. An Act which invests many tens of billions of dollars into American clean energy, industry and manufacturing. It is Biden’s response to the 21st century’s inflection point on energy.

But in order to control energy, you need to control a country. Yes, the USA is 100 times the size of Wales. Look, therefore, to Norway, with a population of 5.5 million. In just the few minutes it has taken you to read this article, Norway’s energy-derived Sovereign Wealth Fund will have likely grown by a few £ million. Or, since the turn of the year, grown by over £20,000 for every individual Norwegian. Accumulated, over the years, the total will have reached £200,000, give or take, per person. That’s some perspective on energy’s wealth. And some insurance policy managed by a government on behalf of its citizens. The Fund will continue to grow as Norway pivots to clean energy.

There is huge wealth to be derived from natural resources and energy. And from co-operating with partners. Energy is both a short-term and a long-term investment for a country.

Wales, therefore, to gain ownership of its resources and to develop energy wealth, on our terms. Energy-based independence for Wales, as any country worth its salt would do.

Guto Owen

December 2023

The institution of monarchy is nothing more than an archaic hangover of days that have long since passed. It is an institution that is fundamentally undemocratic and epitomises the absolute worst of economic inequality and elitist snobbery. Whilst it is now ubiquitous to mock the ‘divine right of kings’ as being a ludicrous concept, many in society still seem to be under the illusion that some are of ‘noble birth’. Of course, the key factor which apparently determines if someone is of noble birth is whether or not they are descended from a long line of individuals who accumulated generational wealth from conquest, theft and exploitation. The concept is obscene enough in isolation, yet we presently have an unwritten constitutional arrangement in which this premise forms the basis from which all executive and legislative power in the country is derived and from which the head of state is determined.

Whilst the institution of monarchy in a British context is bad enough, in a Welsh context it is downright offensive. Wales’ entrance into the ‘union’ with England was the direct result of an unprovoked invasion and annexation by none other than Charles Windsor’s predecessors. Not only did they invade and occupy Wales, but they even saw fit to brutally murder Wales’ final native princes so as to cement their rule over the nation. Llywelyn ap Gruffydd was ambushed and killed in Cilmeri in 1282, whilst his brother Dafydd was the first prominent figure in recorded history to be subjected to being hung, drawn and quartered the following year. As a final humiliating gesture of dominance over Wales, Edward Longshanks invested his son as Prince of Wales in 1301. Since then, it has been customary for the ruling monarch of England (now the United Kingdom, although that difference is tentative at best) to invest their heir apparent as the Prince of Wales.

In the centuries following the conquest to the present day, there has been a longstanding radical tradition of opposition to the monarchy in Wales. Whilst Owain Glyndŵr may have proclaimed himself as Prince of Wales following his rebellion against the English monarchy in 1404, he did so in the presence of a parliament he had called in Machynlleth. In the following year, a second parliament would be held in Harlech, in which it is believed that up to four representatives from every commote in Wales was in attendance. Although the exact nature of Glyndŵr’s parliaments remain shadowed by history, their existence is evidence of an early democratic tendency existing in Wales. This would continue well into the Industrial Revolution, throughout which Wales became a hotbed for radical republicanism, culminating in the Merthyr and Casnewydd risings. Indeed, even the investiture of Charles Windsor as Prince of Wales in Caernarfon as recently as 1969 was met with protests nationwide and militant action from the likes of Mudiad Amddiffyn Cymru and the Free Wales Army. So intense was the pushback against Charles’ investiture, that upon his ascension to the throne last year, Charles personally opted to avoid a formal investiture ceremony for William so as to avoid a repeat of events.

Focusing less on the history of the issue, the present and future prospects for the monarchy are bleak, particularly here in Wales. Polling on the issue conducted by Beaufort Research and BBC Wales in 1999 suggested that up to 62% of the Welsh-speaking population supported the monarchy, whereas polling in recent years has consistently indicated that support amongst the wider population hovers at around 50%, suggesting a large drop in support. In regards to the Prince of Wales title, there is a very similar downward trend over the past two decades, with support dropping from 73% in 1999 to as low as 51% in 2023 according to Lord Ashcroft polling. When polling is broken down by age, however, the future of the monarchy becomes even more uncertain. Polling conducted by YouGov and WalesOnline this year revealed that whilst up to 69% of those in Wales aged over 65 support the monarchy, only a mere 28% of those aged 16 to 24 do. A similar trend is observed amongst those in the 24 to 49 age category, where support sits at 43%. It therefore seems fairly apparent that support for the monarchy in Wales is on borrowed time and that a future independent Wales should strive to become a republic so as to reflect that. After all, if we are to become an independent nation, then surely we should also have the freedom to elect our own head of state?

When the matter of republicanism is discussed in a British context, it is often presented as a binary selection between the status quo or a presidential republic akin to the United States or France. The reality of the matter is actually far more exciting, particularly in the context of Wales alone. As an independent nation, we could opt to establish a radically new form of governance predicated on participatory democracy and subsidiarity. Taking inspiration from the Swiss canton model, governance could be decentralised down to the scale of ‘cantrefi’, small areas in which communities would be empowered to directly govern their own affairs. Welsh citizens would become active participants in their local communities and would wield genuine power and influence over their surroundings, as governance would be brought down to the human scale. In such a system, citizenry would be involved in frequent local and national referenda, debates and general decision making. Power wouldn’t be vested solely in the Senedd in Caerdydd, but also with the citizens and communities themselves. It wouldn’t even be necessary for there to exist a president in the conventional understanding of the role, as we could instead opt to have an executive federal council as Switzerland also does. This would dispel a lot of the criticisms of republicanism that are often raised concerning the cost and impartiality of a president as head of state. 

If Wales is to become an independent nation, then it should do so with self-confidence and pride. It should not confine itself to ‘safe’, tried and tested methods of governance and embrace the potential to create a genuinely new society that places the power of communities at its forefront. Most importantly of all, however, it should under no circumstance keep itself shackled to a decrepit monarchy in London that has never done anything except steal, loot and plunder. Wales can choose to either have the courage to be free, or it will not be free at all.

The British monarchy, led these days by King Charles III, can be a contentious issue for many in the Welsh independence movement. Many in the movement want it abolished and feel that Wales becoming an independent country is a way that can happen, and some want it to continue either because they support it or because they don’t feel fighting for independence and a Republic at the same time is practical or pragmatic. I’m someone who is in the latter category and I’m going to set out the main reasons why I feel Wales should and will remain a constitutional monarchy post-independence.  

The first reason is political pragmatism. Wales is a pro monarchy country and  has no desire to replace the current unelected head of state King Charles III  with an elected head of state just yet. The most recent poll conducted by YouGov for WalesOnline in February 2023 put support for the monarchy on  52%, with support for an elected head of state at 28%, with don’t know at 11%, a YouGov poll a year before with a bigger sample size put support at 55% and support for an elected head of state at 28%. Trying to achieve independence is going to be a challenge and the movement will need as many voters as possible. Alienating voters who may be persuaded to vote for independence but not necessarily a Republic isn’t politically pragmatic. Wales doesn’t need to be a Republic to be independent from Westminster. 

The second reason is constitutional continuity. Wales becoming an independent country will be a big constitutional change. Although Wales as a country and nation is old, democratically it is still very young. Devolution has only been in place since 1999 and before that since 1535 politically Wales was a part of England and still isn’t a complete separate entity from England yet as  it doesn’t have its own justice system. I personally have always felt that  independence is a journey and there will be several steps on the way and for me the next logical step would be to become a sovereign nation state as a  member of the UN as a constitutional monarchy with the current British monarch becoming King of Wales and there is precedence in this with other countries. When Ireland left the UK it became the Irish Free State in 1922 with the British monarch as the head of state and only became a Republic in 1949. Other countries like New Zealand, Australia and Canada who used to be under British rule but are now independent still have the British monarch as their head of state with governor generals performing the monarch’s day to day duties and I see Wales being very similar to those countries, especially New Zealand which has a unicameral Parliamentary system like Wales. 

The third reason is losers consent and British identity. Not everyone in Wales  will want Wales to be an independent country and end its political union with  England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. I can’t predict how Wales will become  independent, it could be through a referendum or an election or it could be by  mutual consent between governments but there will be a significant  proportion of the country against it, but the newly formed state will need that  minority to accept independence and to engage with the process and the  newly formed state. Many of those people will be current military and ex military and the new state will need them to help form its own Armed Forces. The monarchy can be a part of that, keeping the monarchy keeps that British  link that many feel is an important part of their identity, it can help give the  newly formed state an air of legitimacy in their eyes so that they accept it and be a part of it and it will also help evolve Britishness away from how it’s seen  now through UK eyes to a more Scandinavian type identity where the people  of Great Britain have common connections, through language, family, friendship and a common head of state in the British monarch but are  politically independent from each other. 

The fourth reason is the relationship with England. Wales relationship with England is a long and complicated one and independence will be a new chapter in that relationship and will be a big change in the relationship not just for Wales but for England as well. The monarchy can be a bridge between the 2 countries and reaffirm the relationship as friendly neighbours and be a symbol of that relationship and show that Wales as a country seeks independence because it wants to govern itself not as some sort of anti-English sentiment which Welsh independence is often accused of being. This also connects in with part of reason 3 in Britishness evolving with common connections and the monarchy being part of that. 

An independent Wales may well eventually become a Republic as many in the  movement will hope but that journey must start somewhere and for Wales, I believe that journey will need to be started as a constitutional monarchy with a shared King as it’s head of state. The importance for me is for Wales to become independent from Westminster, for it to have the powers and the ability to make things better for its citizens and join the international community as a sovereign nation state. 

Written by Jeremy Brookman, a Welsh independence supporter since 2019, a YesCymru member and a member of Plaid Cymru.

Instruments of extremism - Gaynor Jones

Startling news emerging from Fleet Street this weekend states that the UK Government wants to implement plans to widen the definitions of “extremism”. 

This has naturally caused huge concern amongst civil rights organisations and has far reaching implications for freedom of expression.

According to documents leaked to the Guardian, Michael Gove’s Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities wants to re-define extremism as an “… advancement of any ideology which aims to overturn or undermine the UK’s system of parliamentary democracy, its institutions and values.”

I wonder whether Michael Gove has had a lightbulb moment yet. 

You know - that second, after giving his Committee members a smug smile and signing off the semantics, when he starts to twitch as he realises that the guilty party fitting this description is ... 

Yes! 

Look no further, it's the UK Government. 

GUILTY on all counts of advancing an ideology which aims to undermine the UK’s parliamentary democracy, its institutions, and values. 

We could argue that this has been going on since the capture of Mrs Thatcher and her acolytes by the American political philosophy of neo-liberalism. An ideology intent on eroding the power of the state and happy to sell off most of its assets. The implementation of which in the UK has proven to be reductive and destructive.

Conservative governments have prioritised the demands of the wealthy at the expense of the rest of us.  The UK has transitioned from being a tax state to being a debt state. The overriding objective seems to be to service debt rather than pursue credible economic development and initiatives.

Since 2010 the Conservatives have inflicted undue misery on everybody as a result of austerity, giving rise to ever increasing rates of poverty and destroying communities. 

But as of 2019 we have witnessed something far worse, a government putting their own interests above and beyond those of the state; openly undermining the state in ways,which if it happened in any other country, would be called a “coup”.

Members of the jury (quick, while we still have one) look at the evidence:

They have threatened the independence of the judiciary and judicial reviews; the independence of the state broadcaster, the BBC; and have undermined public confidence in all institutions of governance, things which individually and collectively have a significant negative impact on democracy.

They have redrawn constituency boundaries to try and maintain a parliamentary majority; prorogued parliament threatening parliamentary sovereignty; introduced compulsory photo ID for Westminster elections, marginalising ethnic minorities, the poor, unemployed and the elderly; and, for good measure, they also want to abolish the Electoral Commission.

This week’s Covid 19 Inquiry has only confirmed what we already knew about the inadequacy, utter selfishness and entitlement of the public-school cabal who now rule the UK. Do I have to remind you that Boris Johnson thought that the old (only about 9 million of the population) were expendable?

There is no going back, the damage is done, extreme ideology has damaged the state’s institutions and values. Just like the Palace of Westminster, the Union is beyond repair. They destabilised the state by their own vices and vanities. The Conservative UK Government are the perps. 

It was that brilliant Irishman and wit Oscar Wilde, who said:

“And what sort of lives do these people, who pose as being moral, lead themselves? My dear fellow, you forget that we are in the native land of the hypocrite.”

The UK is indeed the native land of the hypocrite.

If you live in Scotland, stop wasting time and leave.

If you live in England, realise that the end of the Union is your chance to renew, reform and revitalise your nation too.

Together on these British Isles, the independent nations of England, Scotland and Wales can be so much more than this tired, old and failing Union - it has served its purpose, done its time, history will be its judge. We need to move on to the next chapter.

If you live in Wales, care for Wales and your community, it really is time to start informing yourself about our potential as a nation, unhindered by unaccountable London governments. Join the campaign for an independent Wales. Join YesCymru and be part of that change. www.yes.cymru/join

This article was published by Nation.Cymru

In my day, it was pirate ships and mediaeval knights. Today it is Ninjago. Watching my stepson assembling his latest LEGO set made me consider the ubiquitous nature of this brand.

Yet in 2003, the Danish toymaker came close to going bust. Faced with a changing games market, the faltering attention of children in the electronic age and the impact of this on the demands for their parents’ cash, LEGO almost disappeared forever.

The company reinvented itself to become relevant to children’s lives in new ways. Learning from its product failures, LEGO refocused on its core business of making plastic bricks. But the company also realised that customers wanted added digital interactions.

They constructed new stories, games and experiences. Partnering with franchises such as Star Wars, Harry Potter and the filmmaker; Warner Bros. Through bringing themselves to a new audience, and reengaging with current and previous fans, LEGO have regained their influence. Returning to their trailblazing toymaker status.

Over the weekend of the 21-22 October, the Welsh Liberal Democrats will host their members at their Autumn Conference in the ever-popular city of Wrexham. There are many similarities with LEGO in 2003 and the Welsh Liberal Democrats of 2023. Seemingly unable to benefit from the recent historical by-election victories of the party in England, the Welsh Lib Dems continue their drift into a confused lack of focus.

The party is absent from the political scene, an endangered species. And the loss of the Welsh Liberal voice would be a disaster for the nation. Wales needs a directional and convincing centrist voice. How can the Welsh Lib Dems, its ancestor Liberal Party once dominant in Welsh politics, regain the mantle of political trailblazer?

Understanding that change means taking risks

Faced with bankruptcy, LEGO brought in a new CEO. They imposed a ‘back to brick’ policy and restructured the company. The Welsh leadership campaigns with strategies, communication tactics  and policies from the 1990s. Stale and hampered by the need for members to vote on every change, the party has lost purpose.

The Welsh Westminster parliamentary seats are of no interest to the London-based federal party and, therefore receive no support. Liberals across Wales want a party that they can get involved with. A movement that clearly establishes its vision of Wales’ future. Yes, new leadership is needed. Yes, the party’s constitution needs modernising. Yes, the Welsh Lib Dems must let go of London, becoming free of its ‘blue wall’ obsessed policies. Doing so would give the party the freedom to develop a distinctly Welsh Liberal identity.

Using data and not guesswork to back up decision making

The party currently has no understanding of which policies and issues are turning voters in Wales on or off. A new Welsh Lib Dem leadership must take time to run in-depth analysis of current policies and speak with the voters, understanding which of these policies they connect with, and to identify where innovation is required to write new ones.

Importantly, the party’s brand messaging and presentational styles must be brought away from the comical bar charts of the 1990s and into transparent and intelligent images suitable for the 2020s.

Engaging with the competition

The party has to experience the voter journey, putting the electorate first. As LEGO found, bringing the best ‘brand’ experience to the customer / voter is how to achieve more sales / gain votes. That might mean engaging with, or even borrowing from, the ‘competition’.

Sometimes, collaborating with other political parties is to the benefit of all. The Welsh Lib Dems must think of how they meet the expectation of the next generation of voters. This may be through ‘borrowing’ from others. The majority of those under 35 years sees the future of Wales as one in which the country is sovereign.

It is then sensible to move the Welsh Lib Dems to a position that allows the party to lead this conversation.

Keep the brand, business and behaviour aligned

LEGOs mission is to inspire and develop the builders of tomorrow. The mission of the Welsh Liberal Democrats has to be to inspire people to build a Liberal Wales. In its current guise, the Welsh Lib Dems are failing at this mission. But if they take the time to bring in new leadership, with bravery and tallent, the party already has all the building blocks to succeed. Just as LEGO found, gazing at your likely extinction can be the catalyst for a trailblazing future. But first you have to realise that you are an endangered species.

Simon Paul Hobson is an approved Parliamentary candidate for the Liberal Democrats. He is also a director of  YesCymru. Simon has been campaigning for wildlife conservation and rural community groups since the age of 11. He is a mining engineer, and a former professional cyclist.

HS2 was never going to benefit Wales: and no distortion or trick can change that fact.  We in Wales have paid towards a railway that leaves us further behind, less connected, and we’ve been cheated out of billions of pounds for that perverse privilege: billions we could have spent on improving our own creaking infrastructure.

Earlier this month, Rishi Sunak confirmed the worst-kept secret in UK politics: that he was cancelling the HS2 line north of Birmingham, and selling off the land it was intended to be built on for good measure.  A scorched earth policy, in almost its literal sense.  Mr Sunak made vague promises about electrifying the north Wales mainline – before hastily back-pedalling on any specifics.  It was cynical stuff from a Prime Minister who knows he’s unlikely to be in post for long enough to be answerable for these new hostages to fortune.

That’s what we’ve come to expect from Westminster – they promise us the skies shamelessly, and then struggle to break ground (anyone remember the Great Western Mainline electrification pledge?)  And all too often, when it comes to the planning or the serious work to make our trains actually run (forget about running on time), they make tracks, they skedaddle.  Well, at least someone’s making them, they must chortle.

But seriously: the fact that the Crewe interchange won’t be going ahead has demolished any notion that this sham of a project will be of any benefit to our nation.  It’s been bewildering to watch successive Tory Ministers claim that first HS2, then Northern Powerhouse Rail were somehow England-and-Wales projects, despite the fact that not an inch of their tracks fall within our borders.  We knew that the Tories in Westminster were without a moral compass.  But in recent months, I’ve started to question whether they even own a compass.  

No, it is as clear as day: HS2 is an England-only project, aimed at improving England’s railways – well, good luck to them.  But it should never have been at Wales’ expense.

It is maddening to think of what we could have done with the billions we’ve been cheated out of.  Because while London is yet again benefiting from high-speed railways, in Wales we have to make do with Victorian infrastructure.  In 2020-21 only 3.7% of Wales’ rail tracks were electrified, compared with over 43% in England, and 32% in Scotland.  The billions we’re already owed from the earlier stages of HS2 could be used towards electrifying our entire rail network, and to support out struggling bus network, which is reeling from a lack of funding.

I’m reliably informed that the ratio separating what’s spent on UK Government rail enhancement commitments in England as opposed to Wales is approximately 200:1.  It’s like some kind of rigged, biased gameshow, where Wales always has the losing hand.  Because a conman keeps taking our money.

The injustice over HS2 needs to be put right by whoever is in power in Westminster – because for as long as decisions on our literal direction of travel are made in another country, the destination will never be of our choosing.  Decisions over major infrastructure projects, and over transport should be made in Wales.  Powers over what happens on our own lines and tracks should be in our possession.  The failure to devolve these powers to our Senedd has left us inert and unable to challenge this latest outrage.  

And we need that commitment from Labour, just as much as we need it from the current shambles in Westminster.  Because of course a Keir Starmer-led government would have many demands on its purse strings.  Of course difficult decisions will face them.  But this is no hypothetical future project, a decision over whether to embark on which is still to be made.  It is a question of correcting an historic injustice.  A mistake that’s already been made – a trick that’s already been played.

It is a project for a railway that neither starts where it was meant to begin, nor ends where its destination was due to be.  But at no point in its journey has Wales been given the money we deserve.

It is money we must demand, from whoever is in government in Westminster.  They owe us this money – it is rightfully ours.  And they need to pay up.

It’s time that Westminster gave us back our billions.

35% of Welsh people want independence

A new poll by Redfield & Wilton released today shows Welsh independence support at 35%. Today’s poll continues the positive trend of strong, consistent polling numbers for Welsh independence. With 49% of those aged 35-44 in Wales supporting an independent Wales. Support across this age group has climbed consistently this year. 

Individuals cite the HS2 sham, the lack of control of Welsh resources and the condescending language of rule from Westminster as some of the many reasons they back independence. 

Voters are increasingly getting tired of the old worn-out politics of Westminster and the old Union. People are seeing independence as the best solution to the current predicament in which we are all locked as part of this increasingly unequal political union.

Commenting on the new polling data, Gwern Gwynfil says:

“This poll indicates that 35% of voters in Wales have come to the conclusion that the status quo does not work for them, that Westminster does not work for them, that the Union is broken. As the cost of living crisis continues to hit us hard, as Westminster denies us billions of pounds with its budget trickery over HS2, with our communities abandoned by the Westminster parties - people are seeing that independence is the best way forward. The Union is unfair, the Union is holding Wales and the people of Wales back, the Union is coming to an end.’’ 

‘’Why wait? Let’s leave and get to work on building a better, brighter future for ourselves and for our children”

“Wales could be so much more than we are allowed to be as members of the UK. There are plenty of countries of a similar size to Wales that are now wealthier than us, or are catching up with us rapidly, most enjoy a higher and better standard of living. Slovenia, Croatia, Estonia, the list goes on, all showing us how we too can prosper as a free and independent country.”

In the final part of this four-part article, YesCymru Director Geraint Thomas asks once again, who cares enough about Wales? Do enough people care to make a difference? 

I believe enough of us care about the future of Wales and its future generations. All of us care enough to understand that something needs to give, change must happen for things to improve. After all, Wales has form across the centuries. Wales has made things happen. Culturally we have long done so collectively, we are a nation of community.

Perhaps in this age, with its vast digital landscape, our forums and public spaces are different. The days of crowds at hustings and debating events might be over. Debate and discourse are often now keyboard-to-keyboard rather than face-to-face. Will we ever see the days of vast political gatherings again? Something we Welsh have historically enjoyed!

Perhaps, but either way our online spaces will be part of the modern landscape of multiple platforms of engagement and communication. The gelatinous nature of politics and belief binds people together. It can also lead to toxic echo-chambers of extremism which foster ignorance and even hatred.

History tells us that, eventually, people will find a collective voice when change becomes imperative. How this voice is projected will be as varied as history itself. Voices will emerge from introverted cocoons to become voices of reason in debate in the bar, the canteen, or around a kitchen table. This might develop into an affiliation with organised campaign groups. It might result in a desire for activism, and the need to ‘do’ something in the interests of change.

Campaigning is the culmination of the activism of the collective, seldom of the individual. If a collective can amass enough passion, desire, and belief, if it can agree on a clear vision of its end goal, then that campaign can and will succeed.

In our journey towards an independent Wales, our message is strong and clear: Wales needs to gain independence in order to thrive as a nation in the twenty-first century. To do so for the benefit of all its citizens. The campaign is rooted in the confidence of the possible, through discussions, debate, and discourse. The front lines of the campaign are pubs, workplaces, community centres, cafes, homes, clubs, parks, and pavements.

However, even a grassroots campaign must be organised. We must accept the reality today that any campaign needs resources in order to succeed. A membership organisation like YesCymru only succeeds through the efforts and activism of its network of members. It is in the work of many members, doing the small things, that it can support a sustained multifaceted campaign across all the communities of Wales.

If enough of us do care, and care enough, we can grow the campaign not only through sheer numbers, but through the strength of a mass-movement campaign. The goal is clear, and the message is clear. So ask yourself: do I care? And more importantly in building a successful campaign, do I care enough? Do enough of us care enough? 

If you care about Wales’ future and are interested in joining the campaign for a free and independent Wales, please visit www.yes.cymru 

Written by YesCymru Director, Geraint Thomas. Another version of this article was published by Byline Cymru on 31stMarch 2023.

The future of democracy is held, at least partly, in the hands of the people of Wales. The Senedd, the Welsh Government, and the mechanics of governance have had their ups and downs over the past quarter of a century. But in that short time the overall trajectory has been upwards, with incremental improvements when possible.

This is terrific news for Wales, as it suggests that with genuine control we could soon emulate the success of other small Independent nations such as Estonia, Slovenia, and Iceland. The natural progression for Wales – as a nation, a democracy, and a developing presence on the international stage – is independence. Or is it?

The ties to British institutions are as strong and pervasive as bindweed. Some feel a strong sense of duty to or even pride in the monarchy and the shared history of Empire; of ideological unity in the twentieth century; of ‘success’ in the two great conflicts that tore our collective world apart. Conflict that still lies within living memory. The armed forces, political institutions, and political parties are linked to the population by an umbilical cord. They are emblems of generations of the people of these islands, a glue that links all our histories together.

Opinion polls fluctuate on the question of independence for Wales. Around a third of those polled in Wales see self-determination as the way forward. Support for independence crosses traditional barriers of geography, party politics, and language, and seems to be consistently spread across Wales.

Another third of our population is sitting, for now, on the opposite side of the fence. Again, this demographic is not constrained by boundaries, whether geographic, linguistic, or political.

This leaves us with the middle third: the undecided, curious, and unbothered. These are the people who will truly decide the future path of Wales. Will they become engaged? Will they take the time to inform themselves? Will they form a view on Welsh independence? Will the arguments for or against independence be strong enough to foster engagement? Can they be inspired to interrogate their own beliefs? To challenge their own assumptions? To understand that, for things to be better, we must change in some way?

Whatever tectonic plates shift in UK politics over the next few years, the constitutional future of Wales will boil down to a battle for around a third of our population. Political forces in Wales and Westminster and further afield, changes in Scotland, the possible reunification of Ireland: all will have their impacts on Wales. It is becoming increasingly apparent that the UK status quo will not survive. An alternative must emerge.

Will this mean a semi-autonomous, devolved, big-brother-little-brother relationship with an English Westminster government? Could this even be the beginning of the end for the devolution process in Wales? A subjugation within a ‘Greater English’ state?

Or could it be that we discover we are brave enough, confident enough, care enough, to stand on our own feet and take our place on the world stage? Stepping up, as so many nations have over the past 80 years, embracing Independence and thriving as a consequence. 

Crunch time approaches for Wales, and for the UK. Not only do we need to choose our path, but the nebulous cloud of emotional ideology will need to be blown away. While emotion and history will always play a part in the debate, hard facts and figures will eventually crystallise into informed opinion and confidence. It’s time to light the pyres of discussion, debate, and discourse.

Written by YesCymru Director, Geraint Thomas. Another version of this article was published by Byline Cymru on 31stMarch 2023.

In the second part of a series of articles, YesCymru Director, Geraint Thomas, asks who cares about Wales? Who cares enough about who governs us and how we are governed? 

Despite scoring a record for a Senedd election, voter turnout was just 46.6% in the May 2021 Senedd elections – far behind turnout in England and Scotland. 

While last week’s article focused on how history has demonstrated the extent to which Wales has been exploited and neglected from Westminster in particular, this article will show, how the lack of understanding, awareness and enthusiasm that flows from our own political institutions here in Wales, poses a real threat to our democracy. 

As previously alluded to, party politics might well be a “murky soup”, but the question of who makes decisions for Wales is clear enough: the ruling Conservative party in Westminster and the Labour administration in Cardiff Bay. Further down the food-chain it is less clear; apart from the odd charismatic opposition leader, who knows anything about who is who, and what is what?

Do most of us actually know the difference between party, Government or Parliament in Wales? Do we really know where Westminster responsibility ends and the Senedd begins? How Welsh Government projects, statutory obligations, and regulations interact with governance? Can we grasp the absurdities and inadequacies of the devolution settlement as it stands today?

The lack of understanding of the basic functions of our democratic institutions is itself a threat to our devolved structures. But as time goes by, understanding improves, and so does confidence. Those who’ve grown up with the Welsh Government feel far more keenly that Westminster treats Wales poorly. They implicitly accept that Wales has a government and, as a result, are more likely to believe that Wales should stand on its own and divest itself of Westminster rule completely.

The Senedd is yet to win over the hearts and minds of all the citizens of Wales. A weak press and patchy broadcast media make it hard to cut through the confusion of overlap in political authority. And harder still for the Senedd and its politicians to communicate broadly, easily, and well with the whole of Wales. Even so, Wales has democratically and emphatically put its weight behind the Senedd. Twice.

Over the past few decades the Assembly and Senedd have changed the landscape of Welsh politics. In recent years, the people of Wales have seen the Westminster emperor in all its naked “glory”. Its cover has been blown. Self-interest, and the interest of the dominant partner in the Union, are clear to anyone who takes the time to look. This will never change, whatever colour or stripe the government in London takes.

Meanwhile, the challenges that the Cardiff Bay administration faces are numerous. Reversing decades of economic and social decline. The need for investment and radical reform of health, social care, transport, and education. With true power, the devil in every detail of these challenges would be surmounted by Wales.

Small is beautiful in the modern era of government. And knowing and understanding all the dusty corners of our own nation, as we Welsh do, is an enormous asset in the creation of effective long-term solutions for bringing success, growth, health, and well-being to us all. But first, we must set ourselves free.

Written by YesCymru Director, Geraint Thomas. Part three of this series will feature next week. Another version of this article was published by Byline Cymru on 30thMarch 2023.

Over the decades, who has actually given a jot about Wales and its citizens? Did the dynastic quarry, pit, and mine owners of the industrial revolution? Did the landowners that squeezed every effort from the workers who ploughed its soil? Well, those who did were few and far between. 

Did successive political dynasties see Wales as little more than a bountiful Eldorado of resources to feed, roof, and fuel the biggest empire the world has ever seen? Probably not. What about the executives of the National Coal Board responsible for tip No. 7 of the Merthyr Vale Colliery? History will show otherwise.

Luckily, across the centuries, people have cared. Cared enough to get together to accomplish Herculean feats. From the power of the Chartist movement and the miners’s strike to the language campaigners of recent decades. 

With vision and passion, our communities have pulled together to create such working class cathedrals to learning as the Workers Education Association (WEA), the workers’s halls, and our very own schools and universities. 

Do we care about how we are governed? Do people in the early years of the 21st century care about who happens to be in government, and how? It is sadly the case that those of us who take an interest in politics are in the minority today. And that maybe party politics has mostly dissolved into a grey, lukewarm soup of murkiness.

Voter participation in Wales at local and Senedd level is very poor indeed, and over a third of voters won’t even turn out for a general election despite the relentless media coverage that comes with it. 

Have we become apathetic because we know we have no agency here in Wales? That it doesn’t matter who we vote for: injustice, unfairness, and poor treatment for Wales will continue?

The perception that none of the political class of this century hold the moral scruples of their predecessors is constantly upheld by the actions of many politicians. Successive Westminster scandals, from expenses to partygate, have left the legacy of a public more disengaged than ever from politics and governance. Electioneering now seems nothing more than who can shout the loudest. 

Enduring our fourth economic downturn in 15 years on the back of a global pandemic and a messy divorce from our biggest trading partner has focused vast swathes of the people of Wales on survival.  A large proportion of our population have learnt how to blank out the white noise of rhetoric in the media. Surviving until the next payday with the occasional mid-month flourish on the odd takeaway is the new norm.

What difference does political bluster and rhetoric make? We are poor and getting poorer, and knuckling down to get by is sucking up our individual and collective energy and enthusiasm.

Fortunately, many of us still care enough to vote, to engage in debate in pubs or on online forums. There is a realisation that good governance makes a real difference to daily life, from public health policies in times of crisis to legislation and regulation protecting tenants in high-rise homes.

We should be able to expect integrity, passion, and compassion from those who govern us however political apathy in Wales demonstrates that this is not the case. So, what gives? Isn’t it time to accept that Westminster does not work for Wales and explore other models such as independence?  

Written by YesCymru Director, Geraint Thomas. Part two of this series will feature next week. Another version of this article was published by Byline Cymru on 30thMarch 2023.

In March, one of our contributors reported on the “Great Wales Train Robbery” that is the HS2 development. 

In view of the fact that the HS2 high speed rail project has been dogged by claims of lack of value for money and overspending since its inception, it’s not surprising that the project has entered the UK headlines yet once again. 

Billed as the “largest infrastructure project in Europe”, and the “most important economic and social regeneration project in decades”, the HS2 rail project will “integrate with new lines and upgrades across Britain’s rail system to deliver faster travel to many towns and cities, according to the website. 

However, although the forecast spend for HS2 was expected to be in the region of between £72 and £98 billion according to 2019 prices (already a 29% – 75% increase on 2015 forecasts), the bill has increased due to inflation and the cost of materials. The spiralling costs have led to a link to Leeds being scrapped and the project is behind schedule: there is already a two decade construction programme to complete the rail network to Manchester. 

The HS2 infrastructure map includes London Euston, Birmingham Curzon Street, East Midlands Parkway, Crewe, Manchester Piccadilly and Manchester Airport. It is claimed that other areas not directly on the HS2 network such as Liverpool, Glasgow, Sheffield and Leeds will also benefit from “improved connectivity” as a result of the high-speed project. 

As well as promising improved connectivity (notice how Cardiff or Swansea were not listed above), HS2 promises that every train will be powered by zero carbon energy and that the project will enable space on the current network for more local, regional and freight services, benefitting commuters with more regular trains. 

While it is important to note that the project is said to be supporting 28,500 jobs and has created 1,200 apprenticeships to date, Wales is not set to derive any benefit from the project – despite the fact that we are making a significant financial contribution towards the project, to the tune of £5 billion. 

Indeed, not a single metre of track will be laid in Wales and alarmingly, according to the Department of Transport’s own estimations, the HS2 project could even negatively impact the Welsh economy by up to £200 million a year. 

Calls to re-classify HS2 as an “England-only” project, rather than an “England and Wales” project have predictably, fallen on deaf ears and the classification means that Wales will miss out on the Barnett consequential rightfully due to it – unlike Scotland and Northern Ireland. So much for being an “equal partner” within the Union! 

Imagine our surprise (or lack thereof) when it was revealed last week that the UK Government had underwritten £680 million worth of investment for a new high-speed electric rail network in Turkey!

Not that we do not support the electrification of railways everywhere to effect high-speed rail travel, however, if it is the UK Government’s goal to support the modernisation of the railways in England and overseas – one begs the question, why does it not support doing so here in Wales? 

Just 2% of Wales’ railways are electrified in comparison to 41% and 25% of English and Scottish railways respectively. What’s more, despite Wales occupying 11% of UK rail tracks, we have only received a meagre 2% worth of UK rail investment since the onset of devolution. 

If ever there was evidence that we are the junior party in this Union, this is it. Independence would give us the spending, borrowing and taxing powers so desperately needed to invest in our vital services and infrastructure. 

When we are young we find it easier to be ambitious, to be brave and to be confident in the promise of a bright and hopeful future. Easy to recognise that to achieve this we must have fundamental change.

Easy to see that the world has changed dramatically as we transition from an industrial age to a digital era of instant connectivity on a global scale.

Recent polling reflects this, showing a growing and consistent majority in favour of Welsh independence amongst 18-34 year olds in Wales.

Not all pollsters are up to date with the recently enfranchised 16-18 year olds in Wales.

Perhaps some amongst older generations are defeated by cynicism, inertia and fear. Curiously the data shows that it is the 45-54 year olds who are least likely to support independence. 

Of course the over 65s are also less likely to support independence. They will have grown up at a time when the UK was more tightly bonded, when there was a sense of shared enterprise and affinity, when it was part of the bulwark against the Soviet Union, and still a relatively wealthy and influential country.

Change is daunting when life’s long lessons have to be unlearnt. New technology, new social attitudes, new enthusiasm for fundamental change so that a brighter future can be built for generations to come.

The UK overall is in decline, becoming poorer overall relative to the world. Some of the figures are staggering – seven of the ten poorest regions in Europe are in the UK; the UK has the largest wealth gap in Europe; quality of life has plummeted; there are too many people in food poverty and a wholly unacceptable level of deprivation for our children.

The UK may still nominally be one of the wealthiest countries in the world but this is not the lived reality for all but a relative minority.

Time for more of the middle aged and older generations to take note of the unconscious wisdom imparted by the youth of today. For those who already support independence the challenge is to open the eyes of their peers who remain blind to the hope, vitality and renewal it will bring.

We must open our minds, persuade others to open theirs, and bring a confident, brave and ambitious independent Wales to life. A fair and equitable Wales, in control of its own resources, a democratic nation, outward looking, culturally rich, economically vibrant, lively and content.

Let’s write our names in history as the generations that freed the future children of Wales to live on their own terms, proudly, as citizens of their own nation.

Since 1944, and Iceland’s independence, a further fifteen European nations have restored their sovereignty. It is our turn now.

Unlike Scotland, we have not tied support for independence to a specific political vision or party. We are free to come together as a nation and make it clear that we are ready to take back control of our own affairs, to set our own priorities, to look after our own children, to create and fulfil our own vision of what we want Wales to look like.

Support for independence in Wales has grown incredibly over the last decade. As well as already having 36% support for independence, a further 31% state they would be more likely or significantly more likely to support Welsh independence if Scotland voted for independence.

But, why wait? 

All polling data taken from Redfield & Wilton 14-16 July 2023Written by YesCymru CEO, Gwern Gwynfil. Another version of this article was published by Nation Cymru on 20thJuly 2023.

(This article was published by nation.cymru)

Wallace Thompson is not well known in Wales, Scotland or England but his evolving view on Irish unity matters to all of us.

For readers who’ve never heard of Wallace, he was a founding member of Northern Ireland’s Unionist party, the DUP. An evangelical Protestant, a special adviser, member of the Orange Order, faithful follower of Dr Ian Paisley. In short, a dyed in the wool, fully committed, lifelong Unionist. 

No longer.

The penny has dropped for Wallace when it comes to Northern Ireland and the inevitability of reunification with the Republic of Ireland.

‘’We are in an inevitable move towards that…there is an inevitability in my mind that we are moving towards a new Ireland…This is the problem with Unionism, we’re in denial’

What Wallace shows is that the Union in its current form is over. There will be a new Ireland and he believes Irish Unionists should engage with and help shape that new Ireland. 

There will be a new Britain too, the independence movement in Scotland is well established with roots so deep it won’t ever be quashed. Scottish independence is also inevitable.

In Wales support for independence is growing incredibly strongly, becoming wider, deeper and more present across the length and breadth of the country. 

Only England lags behind. But, as with Wallace, the penny will drop, realisation will dawn that the UK is not fit for purpose, that it does not work as a relatively small and less important part of the international landscape. In a world where the restoration of the old Empire is impossible, for those English leaders who have the bravery to follow the logic, the conclusion that England too will be better off as an independent nation must follow.

Like Wallace, who believes that engagement and constructive discussions on the creation of a new, united Ireland is the way forward for Irish Unionists– so too for the rest of Britain. Engagement and discussion across and between the nations to find the best way to part ways will be the pathway to success for all three newly independent nations - England, Scotland and Wales.

The history of the Empire can end on a positive note. The Union can unwind in a ‘conscious decoupling’ rather than a messy divorce. New, close, mutually beneficial relationships between the nations of the new British Isles can blossom and grow immediately. 

The people who live in each nation can enjoy the fruits of the renewal that independence brings. A 21st century renaissance of smaller, independent nations. 

There are plenty who are still wedded to the Union in spite of the weakness of the arguments they make for its preservation. There are plenty who believe in an incremental approach, a path which soothes their fear of the unknown and ameliorates their natural resistance to change and innovation. But the place with the most rapid growth in support is amongst those who have realised that this should happen now. 

Why wait? There is nothing to gain in procrastination and prevarication. Wallace gets it. The writing is on the wall and the wall is already falling down. Instead of waiting for it to crumble, be part of tearing it down so that something new and better can be built in its stead.

The UK is in decline, schools are crumbling, food banks are multiplying, the poor are getting poorer whilst the rich get richer. This is an unhealthy picture of terminal decline. Changing the constitutional make up of the UK creates an opportunity for renewal for all parts of the UK. Independence is not the only option but it is the best way to achieve this. 

As independent nations, each of us can choose to what extent and how deeply we integrate and co-operate with our immediate neighbours and with other friends and allies. As independent nations, each of us can create constitutions reflective of our cultures. As independent nations, each of us can have vibrant democracies, setting our own priorities and making our own decisions.

We will all be better off with independence. Annibyniaeth for all! 

According to the latest survey Redfield & Winton Strategies - Welsh Westminster, Senedd & Independence Referendum Voting Intention, 38% of people want Wales to become an independent nation.

The poll also showed that 41% of those aged 18 - 24 and a majority of those aged 25 - 34 (51%) would vote yes to independence. 

The monthly Welsh tracker poll showed that the number of people who would vote No to Wales becoming an independent country, if a referendum were held tomorrow, fell by 5% to 53%. However, those, who said they would vote Yes rose by a percentage point to 33%. While those who said they Did Not Know  would vote rose by 4 percentage points to 14%.

If the Don’t Knows are excluded, the percentage in support for independence rises to 38%.

YesCymru board member Geraint Thomas said:

“The overall poll in favour of a yes vote is only half the story. The true picture lies in our younger demographics.  All of the younger polling groups (under the age of 35) poll above 50%, and the 18-24 year old demographic poll at 55%. 

There is renewed energy and confidence within Wales’ younger generation, and they overwhelmingly see an outward looking independent nation as the only way to secure their future.”

Match sponsors Cosh! Records, Crefftau Bendith y Mamau, SOS Kit Aid, Cefn Golau Food Hub and Cms Teamwear, Yes Cymru.

Man of the match Ash Richards with ‘Super’ Mario Kamna coming a close second.

A massive thanks to Fc Tredegar for the welcome and their help along with BlaenAvon Blues in completing an excellent kit collection for third world countries along with SOS Kit Aid and also a good collection for Cefn Golau Food Hub.

In a match that has been been a long time coming, Fc Tredegar provided a warm welcome for their opponents. In what was a thrilling encounter with plenty of quality throughout both teams, the Indy boys came away with their first ever win, and their first goals. New recruit Ash Richards scored a first half hat trick which was full of class, two great finishes and a well taken penalty that gave the Indy boys a slim 2-3 lead going into the interval.

The gusty conditions were proving a handful for the players as the ball was held up for long periods, Tredegar who were missing their inspirational captain Chris ‘Speedy’ Williams, as he had been poached by their opponents, gave a great account of themselves and scored two good goals passed the impressive Damian Turner from Seven Sisters/Onllwyn who was making his debut. Turner also produced a highlight reel penalty save much to the delight of the away side.

Turner was supported by debutants Ben Gould and Jack White at full backs who impressed throughout. As was Moussa Doumbia who is originally from Sudan, but is now settled in Cardif, Wales. What a talent this man is, as he marshalled the defence effortlessly.

The second half saw the flamboyant Jonny Thomas start to dictate the play, along with his partner ‘Super’ Mario Kamna looked like they had played together for years, although they had just met before kick off.

Lewis Blofield from Llandovery was performing well above his young age out wide, and gave a great display in his debut also.

Ash Richards scored another penalty in the second half and Craig Elsdon got on the score sheet too, to cap off a fine display. Richards was a danger throughout and took his chances extremely well.

Ashtaf Koko from Sudan/Wales and Malik Mbappe from Nigeria/Wales settled effectively into the side and their quality was obvious from the get go.

Gareth McCann and Jack Baines came off the bench to steady the ship and on another day McCann could have got on the score sheet.

Manager Eifion Rogers said

“We firmly believe that the key areas in the fight for independence are, music and sport and we are committed to win this battle for our country and the future generations, we will be looking to announce our future matches and musical projects very soon. We are always on the lookout for volunteers, players and clubs to link up with, and much needed sponsorship, if you can help please get in touch. It was also a great pleasure to welcome Coach Khan to the set up.

Diolch/Thanks Cymru Rydd”

We were very fortunate to have Welsh poet Andrew Challis, our latest recruit, construct this masterpiece for our comeback game. 

Here in Wales we have the knack of being our own worst enemies. We have long been masters of internecine conflict, of criticising each other, of the politics of envy when someone succeeds locally.

We can argue that this is an outcome of big neighbour dominance. Challenging the biggest person on the playground is too hard and we no longer have the confidence to step up and do so. Centuries of cultural oppression and economic domination will inevitably beat you down and impact on all aspects of people’s lives, individually and collectively, in a myriad unseen and unrealised ways.

No one needs to divide and conquer in Wales as we will do it to ourselves…

This expresses itself as an inability to come together and stand shoulder to shoulder even on issues where there is broad agreement. It makes us by nature polarised and partisan, it militates against a united front, it prevents us from making progress, it holds us back. It is the easy road to blame ourselves and each other, to make excuses based on our history, to avoid responsibility for our own actions by disempowering ourselves.

This is not good enough. These excuses are nothing more than nails to build a house of failure. Time to set such childish things aside and work for success, with confidence and maturity.

We’ve seen a microcosm of this folly within the independence movement recently, with a small number of organisations objecting to the inclusion of a centre-right pro-independence party in the Yes Cymru conference that was held in June. One of the guilty parties involved is a nominally apolitical single issue campaign group which will have centre-right members in its ranks, what does it say to these members?

Extrapolating current polling data in Wales suggests that up to a million people are now broadly in favour of Independence.

Pointless posturing, pandering to a few dozen ill-informed individuals, is reductive when the time has come for the Independence movement in Wales to be expansive. We must appeal to the length and breadth of Wales. We must have the ambition of bringing 60%, 70% of the population to a belief in the strength, viability and success of Wales as an Independent democratic nation on the global stage.

You don’t do this by cancelling yourselves or attempting to cancel others because you have a distaste for their politics. Yes Cymru is an umbrella organisation that welcomes all supporters of independence – regardless of their political (or lack of) persuasions. 

No more of this. Time to grow up. Time to look up. No more navel gazing and talking to ourselves in a tiny circle of exclusion, redolent with echo chamber narcissism.

We must address the millions in Wales who will decide the future of our nation. It is they who will take us to Independence and, when we get there, it is they who will decide what shape that Independence takes. It most certainly won’t be a few dozen dogmatic, naive and narrow minded individuals with a grudge and an iron belief that their way is the only way.

Have the courage of your own convictions, yes. Express that courage by being ready and willing to defend these through debate and argument in an open, public forum.

We must ask ourselves whether it is more important to attack other groups campaigning for Welsh Independence or to actually campaign for Independence. It is time to get on board or get out of the way.

Written by YesCymru CEO, Gwern Gwynfil. Another version of this article was published by Nation Cymru on 8thJune 2023. 

Wales has a decent claim to being the crucible in which UK Labour was formed.

Almost 125 years after Merthyr Tydfil elected Scotsman Keir Hardie as the first Labour MP, Labour in Wales finds itself somewhat adrift from Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.

We can be sympathetic to Welsh Labour – it is evident that it is UK Labour that has left them rather than they who have left their own Labour tradition – but the hard reality of separation is inescapable.

Starmer’s Labour have fashioned themselves as the true inheritors of the Thatcherite tradition, far closer to John Major than John Smith, rapidly scurrying rightwards into the space left behind by the old Conservatives.  

Add the twin exigencies of UK media collusion and the frenzied forums provided by the social media revolution and, the decline of the UK is now catalysed, accelerated and imminent. Whatever your view of the politics, Corbyn’s Labour briefly and unexpectedly pushed a radical and different platform.

The lesson the Labour Party seem to have learned from the relatively near miss of the 2017 General Election is to do nothing bold or brave. A somewhat curious conclusion when Labour actually won 40% of the popular vote.

Whether you agree or disagree with the politics of either side of that election, to conclude that not having ideas and not showing leadership is the way to make an impact seems perverse. To then conclude that the two-party, first past the post system in the UK, is still fit for purpose is even more dissonant.

But UK Labour, in utter defiance of its own membership, stays resolutely against proportional representation and any meaningful constitutional reform.

If I were a supporter of Labour in Wales I would wonder how, in little more than a century, this political movement inspired by the people, has become so utterly co-opted by establishment norms and so devoid of ideas, innovation and boldness.

Given the divergent paths of the Labour movement in Wales relative to Scotland and England, it is little wonder that there is some considerable tension between them.

The Welsh apparatchiks are frequently told off by their London masters. Mark Drakeford, always careful in his choice of words, repeatedly inciting the ire of Starmer’s inner circle.

Unlike Scotland, Welsh Labour supporters are as likely to be pro-Indy as Unionist – a tension which has allowed the party to stay entrenched as the party of power in Wales by defusing the immediate political threat of Indy with the ‘Home Rule’ compromise.

This balancing act can’t continue indefinitely and becomes more challenging as Independence becomes a more prominent aspect of people’s political considerations.

For those making the connection between the poor management of the UK by Westminster, growing poverty and the threat these pose to institutions such as the NHS, independence suddenly becomes a viable solution.

When that penny drops the apathy and lack of agency of vast swathes of the Welsh population could be transformed – Welsh Labour will want to be ready to capitalise on this and ride that wave to continued electoral success. They don’t look ready.

To date, no champions have emerged to represent those who want to forge a new path for Wales.

Many are waiting for Scotland to leave before finding the bravery to back Independence. Why wait?

Such low self–esteem speaks to the absence of hope and confidence in our communities. If Labour in Wales want to restore that hope and confidence, strong and ambitious support for independence is one way to do so.

Written by YesCymru CEO, Gwern Gwynfil. Another version of this article was published by Nation Cymru on 14thJuly 2023.