One of the most important functions of government is to protect its citizens. Defence goes beyond fighter jets and warships – it also involves safeguarding people from harm in all its forms, whether from military threats, natural disasters, or cyberattacks.

What Does Wales Need Defending From?

On paper, Wales is situated in one of the safest regions in the world. While we do not face a high risk of attack, the global security landscape is more uncertain now than at any time since the 1930s.

It is unclear whether NATO can still depend on the United States to play a full role, and the implications of this for the alliance remain uncertain. Reducing reliance on the US will require making defence a higher priority than it has been in the past.

Old threats have also resurfaced, such as an expansionist and aggressive Russia, while new risks are becoming increasingly significant. These include:

• Climate change – leading to flooding, coastal erosion, wildfires, and extreme weather events.
• Cyberattacks – targeting critical infrastructure, businesses, and public services.
• Online misinformation campaigns – designed to destabilise democracies and influence elections.

Some nations operate without a standing military. For example, Costa Rica (population 5.2 million) has not had a military since 1949, and Iceland has been without one since 1869. However, if Wales were to establish its own defence force, what might it look like?

What Would the Welsh Defence Forces Do?

While the military would have a combat role, it would also play a key role in supporting foreign policy.

Decades of UK foreign policy failures – from the Iraq War to the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan – have damaged Wales by association.

Independence would allow Wales to take a different approach, focusing on peacekeeping and disaster relief.

Wales could follow Ireland’s example by becoming a centre of excellence for humanitarian military training, while also supporting domestic priorities such as:

• Search and rescue operations.
• Fisheries protection.
• Counter-smuggling efforts.
• Cybersecurity and counter-terrorism measures.

If Wales were to establish a Welsh Defence Forces modelled on Ireland’s, it would likely feature a single command structure overseeing land, naval, and air operations, with a primary focus on land-based forces. A combination of regular personnel and reservists would likely result in a force of 5,000 to 7,000 personnel.

How Much Would a Welsh Defence Policy Cost?

It is worth noting that the UK ranks 12th in the world for military spending per capita.^[41] Despite no regiments being based in Wales, the UK Government spends a proportional £2.7 billion per year on defence in Wales^[42] – more than annual spending on education (£2.2 billion in 2023/24) and over six times the policing budget in Wales (£434 million in 2023/24).

The Irish Defence Forces budget is approximately €1.3 billion per year. If Wales allocated a similar amount per capita,^[43] its defence budget would be around £732 million annually – significantly lower than the £2.7 billion currently spent.

Alternatively, if Wales were to join NATO and meet the alliance’s 2% of GDP target, its defence budget would be around £1.7 billion per year.^[44]

An independent Wales could also introduce constitutional safeguards limiting politicians’ powers to send troops into combat. In the UK, the Prime Minister can deploy forces without parliamentary approval. A Welsh constitution could ensure that the Senedd must approve any use of war powers.

In terms of internal security, the Investigatory Powers Act 2016 – commonly referred to as the "Snooper’s Charter" – grants the government extensive powers to monitor online activities. An independent Wales could enshrine privacy rights in its constitution, preventing future governments from overreaching into people’s personal lives.

Climate Change as a Defence Matter

One of the biggest threats to Wales – and the world – is climate change. Extreme weather has always been part of life in Wales, but what were once once-in-a-decade storms are now happening every year.

The UK Government’s failure to support Wales in this area is clear:

• Making former coal tips safe is estimated to cost £600 million, yet as of 2024, the UK Government has allocated just £25 million^[45] – despite retaining responsibility for these tips through the Coal Authority.^[46]
• During Storm Dennis in 2020, which caused severe flooding in Welsh communities, the military was not deployed to assist Wales.
• Civil defence remains a low priority for the UK Government compared to its focus on overseas military operations.

For Wales, defence spending feels like an insurance policy that never pays out.

Securing energy independence is also a defence matter. Reducing reliance on imports from authoritarian states strengthens national security and benefits the environment too.

The most effective way to do this is to:

• Expand domestic renewable energy generation.
• Accelerate the transition to zero-emission transport.
• Gain control over energy policy, currently restricted by Westminster.

Right now, Wales cannot approve energy projects larger than 350MW and has no control over the energy grid or nuclear industry. Independence would allow Wales to take charge of its energy security, ensuring Wales' needs are prioritised over Westminster’s interests.