This summer, new YesCymru stickers began appearing all over the country, featuring the YesCymru logo alongside 2032. There was no explanation, no press release, just around 15,000 stickers appearing on road signs and lampposts, from Anglesey to Monmouth and from Aberystwyth to Abergavenny.

At this year’s Eisteddfod y Garreg Las in north Pembrokeshire, the explanation finally came as YesCymru launched our 2032 campaign. YesCymru believes that Wales will be in a strong position to win an independence referendum by 2032. But why launch the campaign now, and why do we believe we can hold and win a referendum within the next six years? Are we throwing darts in the dark? Is YesCymru allowing false hope to prevail rather than facing reality? Are we letting our hearts rule our heads?

The idea of 2032 has been developing for some time, through discussions within the board about YesCymru’s strategy and direction. Several factors have been central to these discussions, and I will try to summarise them here. So, for our members and everyone else interested in our work, our aspirations and our future as a movement and as a country, here is the reasoning behind our 2032 campaign.

Opinion Polls

Recently, we have been focusing on commissioning opinion polls to establish a foundation for our strategic planning. As a rule, everyone looks at the headlines, including many YesCymru supporters and members. They will be well aware that the figures have remained static over the past few years. Excluding those who do not know, around one in three of those who would vote say they would support independence. That is considerably higher than levels of support seen a decade or more ago, but in reality, it still means that around two in three would vote No. 

But by ignoring those who say they do not know, we are losing some extremely important information. If they do not know, it is reasonable to conclude that they may be open to the idea but have not yet been convinced. If we knew what was making them uncertain about independence, we could change our strategic focus to address their fears and increase support for independence. This is why we have invested money, time and resources into doing the research and winning their support.

In our most recent Survation opinion poll, 32% of likely voters who had made up their minds said they would vote for independence if a referendum were held tomorrow. However, when all respondents were asked to rate their support for independence on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 meant strongly opposed and 10 meant strongly in favour, 34% placed themselves between 6 and 10. A further 20% placed themselves exactly in the middle, at 5. This represents a significant group of voters who could potentially be persuaded to support independence. If we can win their support, there are enough potential votes to win a referendum.

Crucially, we also have a clearer understanding of the concerns we need to address, with 46% identifying economic fears as the biggest barrier to Welsh independence. YesCymru is currently working with economists to ensure we present the highest-quality information about Wales’s economic future, and we want to open up a national conversation on the subject. 

It would be easy to suggest that winning the economic argument alone would be enough to secure victory, but the reality is more complex. Other concerns are also holding people back, and the period between now and 2032 gives us ample time to address these issues and build further support for independence.

For example, concerns about governance feature significantly in our opinion polls and account for around 20%. By ensuring that the structures are in place to facilitate the transfer of powers from Westminster to Cardiff Bay, we will once again be able to increase support for an independent Wales.

Many men have already made up their minds about how they will vote, whereas women are more willing to change their minds. We also know that there is unlikely to be much movement in opinion polls or voting intentions among the over-65s, particularly men. On the other hand, there is much greater potential for growth among women aged 18–24. In general, younger people are much more likely to support independence. Most have grown up with a much stronger Welsh identity than previous generations and see themselves as equal to people in every other independent country in the world. Inferiority complexes are not in their blood, but confidence and a desire for freedom are in their souls.

Using the data, we know who is sitting on the fence, who our target groups are, what matters to them and the best way to win their support. 

The data suggests that winning a referendum by persuading those who have yet to decide is a real possibility. But if there is one lesson we have learned from Scotland’s experience in 2014, it is this: when the opportunity comes, we must win.

The Situation in the Other Celtic Nations

The longstanding argument is that referendums in the other Celtic nations will influence how the people of Wales vote in an independence referendum. However, YesCymru’s strategy group believes the picture is more complicated, and the polling data supports this view. If Scotland were to vote for independence, or Ireland were to reunify, support for Welsh independence would remain broadly unchanged, with any differences falling within the polls’ margin of error. What is striking, however, is that support for remaining in the United Kingdom would fall significantly in both scenarios, while the proportion of undecided voters would rise significantly to around 30%.

This suggests that constitutional change elsewhere could weaken support for the Union in Wales, but would not necessarily translate into greater support for Welsh independence. Ultimately, our salvation will not come at the hands of others. That much is certain.

The idea that Wales will simply follow other countries is insulting to the people of Wales. What we have seen in Wales recently also contradicts this idea, with more people voting in Welsh elections and, for the first time in the history of devolution, a party other than Labour emerging as the largest in the Senedd. The standard of political journalism in Wales is much better than it used to be, with organisations and individuals such as Nation.Cymru and Will Hayward focusing on Welsh politics in ways we have not seen before. We, the people of Wales, have developed a greater interest in the issues that affect us, and we understand much more about our political system. Wales has awakened, and that bodes well for us and for the future.

Furthermore, while there is no clear route to an independence referendum in Wales without Westminster's consent, there are established precedents. Scotland held a referendum in 2014, while the Good Friday Agreement provides for a referendum on Irish reunification in Northern Ireland. Denying Wales the opportunity to hold its own independence referendum would likely achieve one thing: increasing public support for independence.

Finally, independence groups from across the Celtic nations have met in Cardiff recently, organised by YesCymru. An ambitious and innovative programme of cooperation is in development. Once again, YesCymru is leading the way. Simply following others is not in our nature.

The Senedd

The shift in our government is clearly positive too. Plaid Cymru is a party with its roots in independence, and this has led to a positive relationship between the party and YesCymru. We have met with the minister responsible for constitutional affairs, Dr Dafydd Trystan Davies, who also appeared as a guest at our stand at the Eisteddfod. However, there are differences between Plaid Cymru’s position and YesCymru’s approach to independence. Plaid Cymru is clear that it will prioritise the devolution of additional powers rather than independence.

As Wales’s experience with matters such as the Crown Estate and the railways demonstrates, YesCymru has little faith in Westminster’s willingness to transfer powers that would benefit us in building an independent nation.

We are not prepared to wait much longer, and we believe the people of Wales are ready to embrace our vision. Given Plaid Cymru's insistence that it will not introduce constitutional changes during its first term, we believe three things must happen if we are to secure a referendum by 2032: Plaid Cymru and/or other pro-independence parties must win again in the Senedd in 2030; a majority of Members of the Senedd must support holding a referendum (though not necessarily independence itself); and YesCymru must persuade the Welsh Government to formally seek the powers to hold an independence referendum through a Section 109 Order under the Government of Wales Act 2006.

Our ability to persuade Plaid Cymru to prioritise independence will depend on increasing support for independence among the people of Wales. If we can raise support for independence beyond Plaid Cymru’s 33% share of the vote in our latest Survation poll, and towards the nearly 40% combined support for Plaid Cymru and the Greens, both of which support independence, we will be in a much stronger position to make our case.

However, the reality is that we need support for independence to reach over 50% by the day of the referendum. That does not mean we need to reach that level before a referendum campaign begins. When the official Yes Scotland campaign launched in May 2012, support for Scottish independence stood at around 33%. By the referendum in September 2014, that figure had risen to 44.7%. Although the referendum was ultimately lost, the campaign demonstrated how significantly public opinion can shift when independence becomes a real choice and the arguments are debated across the country.

Other Factors

Other factors will play a role as we carve the path towards independence. Politically, people in Wales are moving away from English politics. We believe in different things, a different identity and a different future. It is no longer “For Wales, See England”; instead, it is about Wales, in Wales, for Wales.

Movements elsewhere in Europe are looking to us, and YesCymru’s successes could help movements in places such as Brittany, where campaigners are aiming to secure some form of devolution by 2032.

The Welsh media is much more interested in independence now, and social media also gives us a platform for growing support. Furthermore, there are catastrophic weaknesses (for them, not us) in the pro-status-quo movements and among those who see Wales as an inseparable part of Britain. When 8,000 supporters took to the streets of Aberystwyth this September, it was high time for Unionists to respond. Their complete failure to do so suggests that they are not up for the fight. One thing is certain: we are ready.

It is a complete coincidence that 2032 will mark exactly 750 years since the killing of Llywelyn, our last native Prince of Wales. Although many of us look at Welsh history through a romantic lens, 2032 is about Wales’s future, about a new Wales. We are not leaving things to chance or romanticising the past. We want to create a Wales that is fairer, wealthier, more confident and more prosperous.

So, in the words of Dafydd Iwan, “I’r Gad!” Now is the time to support Wales, support our future and support independence. If you are not a YesCymru member, join us. Every penny brings us one step closer to independence. If you are a member, thank you for your support. Get out there. Join a local group and become active in your community, workplace or local club. Do your very best to persuade others to join YesCymru > www.yes.cymru/join.

We have a great deal of work to do, and just six years to get it done.

Rob Hughes,

Chair, YesCymru

Survation conducted an online poll of 1,023 adults aged 16+ in Wales on behalf of YesCymru, on their voting intentions and attitudes to Welsh independence. Tables are available here (Downloadable Excel file).

YesCymru Sets 2032 Target for Welsh Independence Referendum - 3 August 2026

Watch on Radio YesCymru

"YesCymru’s new Chair, Rob Hughes, talks to Siôn Jobbins about the launch of the new ‘2032’ campaign for a Welsh independence referendum, and the possibility of a coordinated push for Welsh and Scottish independence and Irish reunification."