Support for Welsh independence has risen again in the latest yearly St. David’s Day Poll, with 11% supporting independence in a multi-option question compared to just 7% last year.
The BBC/ICM poll shows no similar rise in support for abolishing the Assembly, however, with the percentage increasing just 1% on last year and staying in line with previous years.
Every year the St. David’s Day poll offers a multi-option question on Wales’ future, with a) independence, b) more powers, c) the status quo, d) fewer powers and f) abolition offered.
The poll included 16 and 17-year-olds for the first time this year after they gained the right to vote in Senedd elections.
The St. David’s Day Poll has been conducted since 2014:
| Independence | More powers | Status quo | Fewer powers | Abolition | Don’t know / didn’t reply | |
| 2014 | 5% | 37% | 28% | 3% | 23% | 5% |
| 2015 | 6% | 40% | 33% | 4% | 13% | 4% |
| 2016 | 6% | 43% | 30% | 3% | 13% | 4% |
| 2017 | 6% | 44% | 29% | 3% | 13% | 4% |
| 2018 | 7% | 44% | 28% | 4% | 12% | 5% |
| 2019 | 7% | 46% | 27% | 3% | 13% | 4% |
| 2020 | 11% | 43% | 25% | 2% | 14% | 5% |
Swing
The poll also shows that support for Labour, the Conservative and Plaid Cymru is neck-and-neck going into next year’s Senedd elections in May.
On the constituency vote, Labour and the Conservatives each poll at 31%, Plaid Cymru and 26% and the Liberal Democrats at 6%.
On the regional vote, Labour poll at 31%, the Conservatives at 29%, Plaid Cymru at 25% and the Liberal Democrats at 5%.
Prof Roger Awan-Scully, Head of Politics and International Relations at Cardiff University, has made the following projections based on a uniform national swing since the 2016 Senedd election: Labour 21 seats, Conservatives 20, Plaid Cymru 18 and the Liberal Democrats 1.
Prof. Awan-Scully told the BBC: “My projections come with the usual health warnings and exceptions.
“On this polling, and using a uniform national swing, Labour could just about hold onto Clwyd South but could lose the Vale of Glamorgan, Vale of Clwyd, Gower, Wrexham and Cardiff North to the Conservatives.
“Labour could also lose Llanelli, Blaenau Gwent, Cardiff West and Caerphilly, on the same basis, but local conditions could impact on this.”
This article was originally published by Nation.Cymru.