Nearly a third of likely voters would vote Yes in an independence referendum tomorrow, while more than half of people in Wales place themselves at the midpoint or above when asked how strongly they support or oppose Welsh independence.
New polling conducted by Survation for YesCymru shows that 32% of likely voters would vote Yes if a referendum on Welsh independence were held tomorrow, with 68% voting No once undecided and refused respondents are removed.
A separate question points to a significantly wider potential constituency for independence.
When all respondents were asked to place themselves on a scale from 0, strongly opposed to Welsh independence, to 10, strongly in favour, 54% placed themselves at 5 or above.
This includes 34% who placed themselves between 6 and 10, on the pro-independence side of the scale, and a further 20% at the midpoint of 5.
YesCymru says the findings show that while nearly a third of likely voters are already prepared to vote Yes, there is a much wider section of the Welsh public that could potentially be persuaded to support independence.
The polling also gives a clear indication of what is currently holding that support back.
Asked what they believed was the biggest barrier preventing Wales from becoming independent, 46% identified economic fears, by far the most common response.
By comparison, just 5% said British identity was the biggest barrier, while only 5% identified public opposition or a lack of desire for independence. A further 20% cited government and political factors.
The findings come after YesCymru launched its 2032 campaign in August, calling for a referendum on Welsh independence by 2032 and setting out the movement’s aim of building majority support for independence over the next six years.
Rob Hughes, the new Chair of YesCymru, said:
“These figures show why we believe a majority for independence is within reach. They also show clearly where the challenge lies. We have to build confidence in Wales’ economic future and make the case for how independence can deliver a better country.
“We do not accept that this is as good as it gets for Wales. We believe our country can do better, and we are determined to make the case for an independent Wales that improves the lives of everyone who calls Wales home.
“That is what our campaign for an independence referendum by 2032 is about. There is substantial support to build on, but a majority will not happen by itself.
“Our task over the next six years is to build that majority, and to give the people of Wales the opportunity to choose their own future.”
The poll is being released two weeks before the next March for Independence in Aberystwyth on Saturday 26 September. Supporters from across Wales will gather at Castle Gardens, beside Aberystwyth Castle, before marching through the town, and returning to Castle Gardens for a rally. The march forms part of YesCymru’s wider campaign to grow support for independence and secure a referendum by 2032.
The same poll also puts Plaid Cymru ahead in Senedd voting intention, on 33%, with Reform UK in second place on 31%. Labour is a distant third on 14%, followed by the Conservatives on 9%, the Greens on 6%, the Liberal Democrats on 5% and another party on 2%. The figures are among respondents likely to vote, factored by likelihood to vote, with undecided and refused respondents removed.
The poll was conducted by Survation via online panel on behalf of YesCymru between 13 and 24 August 2026, among 1,023 residents of Wales aged 16 and over. Data was weighted to the profile of adults in Wales by age, sex, region, highest level of qualification, 2024 General Election vote, 2026 Senedd Election vote and 2016 EU Referendum vote. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
The four full data tables relating to the polling findings mentioned in this press release are available here. YesCymru_Wales_Polling_August_2026_PRESS_v2.xlsx