In May 2026 there will be elections for the Scottish Parliament. The Scottish National Party has been in government for 18 years. The Scottish Greens have 7 seats so that gives a pro-independence majority.

There are problems having a party in power for such a long time. Problems mount, politicians get tired and become middle managers not innovators. A year ago there was a possibility that the SNP might lose power but that is now unlikely.

This is not because SNP support has significantly increased but because of what has happened to opposition parties. The Labour UK Government has become hugely unpopular and on the political right the vote has split between the Conservatives and the far-Right. Green support here has gone up only slightly.

Support for independence has remained steady at around 50%. Several polls have shown it rising but only about 2%. We have a clear majority of those under 50.

One interesting development is that there are now more women supporting independence than men. In the past it has always been the reverse.

The wider independence movement suffers from too many different factional groups convinced that only they have the strategy to take us forward.

Next May's election will give us a clearer picture.

Isobel Lindsay